Abstract: This paper introduces a method for updating the pointing error model of the laser inter-satellite link dynamics in low-orbit satellites, addressing the challenges posed by uncertainty factors. In engineering applications, the construction of laser links is inherently influenced by a range of uncertainties, leading to inaccuracies in estimating the pointing area during the scanning process. This, in turn, compromises the precision of inter-satellite laser link establishment. Therefore, it is imperative to consider multiple uncertainties in rectifying the dynamic pointing error model of low-orbit laser interstellar links, laying the groundwork for subsequent scanning and capture procedures. The paper begins by delineating the laser interstellar link system and its associated uncertain parameters, subsequently establishing a system dynamics model. Following this, a sensitivity analysis is conducted on these uncertain parameters, leveraging sensitivity indicators to establish a surrogate model of the original system dynamics using the Kriging method. The prediction accuracy of this model is then thoroughly verified. Subsequently, uncertainty quantification indicators are determined, and Bayesian stochastic model updating techniques are employed to refine the uncertain parameters of the system dynamics model. Finally, the effectiveness and feasibility of this dynamic model correction method for addressing pointing errors in inter-satellite links under uncertainty are demonstrated through numerical simulations.

Key words: model updating, interstellar laser link building, sensitivity analysis, surrogate model